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Topic for May 2024 - Defence - Putting the UK on a war footing
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The agenda below is extensive in that it has many prompts of what could potentially be considered under each heading. We've also included the answer that Bing Co-pilot gave us to the question of what it means to be on a war footing.
Agenda
What needs to be done to put the UK on a war footing? How long will that take? Is 2.5% GDP significant enough?
- What does being on a war footing actually mean? What are the objectives we actually need to meet to achieve that status?
What does the Government mean by putting the UK on a war footing? The words used appear to be about deeper stockpiles and ability to replenish more quickly and gearing up our own industry to do that.
What do we think it should mean regarding our deployable capabilities and personnel?
Is our objective to be able to deter threats at a national level but to be able to win with our allies?
Is it only through NATO that we can counter aggression? How relevant are our other alliances? Is Trump a threat to NATO or is he just trying to ‘encourage’ those countries not paying their way?
How far down the international league table of defence capability are we really despite our spend?
What are the threats we need to counter e.g. Russia, China, Iran, N.Korea, a combination of all? Should we assume we may need to fight an axis of autocratic states i.e. Russia, China, Iran and proxies, N.Korea. Are these the only threats, or are there pervasive ideological threats which cross normal borders e.g. ISIS terrorism, Wagner covert actions? What about the countries that are their proxies, or where they have soft power to influence them, are these a bigger danger than direct confrontation with a major power? Will India become increasingly rogue under Modi and how relevant are the water wars with the Chinese in the Himalayas?
Do we need to be on a war footing or just have credible defence forces and equipment? What will be the impact on our adversaries of putting ourselves on a war footing?
If Putin starts winning does NATO have any other option than to enter the Ukraine/Russia conflict directly?
Is war inevitable in the next 10 years? If so what might it look like?
Do we have a sufficiently credible/capable Defence Minister in Shapps to take leadership, when he is characterised as the Private Pyke of UK Defence in some quarters?
- Where should we be strengthening our capability (a) at home (b) overseas?
Where are our capabilities good and where poor? Do we really have the best trained forces in the world? How leading edge are our advanced capabilities? Or are our forces so hollowed out that we are now poor, if not feeble all round? Will it take 10 years to redress this?
Where are our most important weaknesses? How vulnerable are we?
What areas need considering e.g. drones, cyber, autonomous weapons, use of AI etc? Where do latest laser developments and drone defence mechanisms figure. Are costly weapons and defense missiles out of date given the cost of drones? Do we need an iron dome? What role can AI play – autonomous weapons etc?
What are our nuclear capabilities like? How important are they in the overall scheme? We got rid of battlefield nuclear weapons, is that still correct? Where are we with space weapons?
What level of capability do we actually need in each area as the UK and as part of NATO? What is a deterrent? Where are the shortfalls that need to be addressed to make our current deterrent posture credible?
How good is ARIA (Advanced Research and Invention Agency)? Is it playing a role yet? What is the balance of advanced capabilities compared to our likely enemies.
How good are our intelligence agencies? Is subversion the biggest danger?
What soft power do we have and how material is it to Defence?
What is a deterrent?
How long will it take to be fully combat ready? Can we deploy rapidly?
- Do we have the people resources and what is the role of the population?
How bad is our recruitment process when Capita are running it and people don’t see a member of the forces during the process? What are the shortfalls in the way the forces are treated, including pay, living quarters and quality of life?
Can the forces have a dual role e.g. disaster/contingency planning at home?
Do people feel patriotic anymore? How many will volunteer, how many will refuse to fight? What can a government do if they do refuse to fight?
Can retired IT people play a role in Cyber Force units. Could people be recruited into different types of warfare units with different age limits? Will being a drone pilot be much more attractive than being a pair of feet on the ground? Some of Doug’s ex Red Storm employees became drone pilots.
Do we need conscription? Or was that to get Defence on the election agenda. What is the position over reservists leaving?
- What are the financial aspects and the impact of putting ourselves on a war footing?
What will be the positive and negative economic effects of putting us on a war footing?
How long will it take to put us on a war footing and maintain ourselves there? How much will it cost as a one-off boost and on-going % of GDP?
£75 billion of extra funding over next 10 years. Funding Ukraine is part of this. Is there a bit of smoke and mirrors over this number? Is it anywhere near enough?
This will supposedly be paid for by getting rid of large numbers of Civil Servants to pre-Covid levels. Will it happen this time?
Will the real race winners be those with the deepest pockets and willingness to divert enough to defence?
- Are we willing to use our capabilities?
Will any of this deter, if we aren’t willing to use it? To what extent is UK, is Nato?
Are other countries and terrorist organisations more willing to use, especially if they have religious belief that they will be rewarded in the afterlife? To what extent will they resort to nuclear weapons if they are about to lose i.e. if we can’t win you won’t either.
Pre-emptive strikes are part of the equation given the speed with which an attack can take place? Does this raise the likelihood of a ‘who blinks first’ escalation.
Have Elon Musk and other tech leaders got an opt out with an escape route to Mars?
- Can we avoid war?
Over the centuries preparing for war has prevented war? Is there any reason that is not true today?
Is there a path off the escalator we are on?
Is there a way of reconciling the different ideologies and different points of view in some way other than war? Can we all compromise some of our principles? Is this at all possible with current demagogic leadership of our adversaries?
How can we ever resolve historic claims over land? Is there a different process?
- What should be the main aspects of our forward strategy?
War footing strategies
War avoidance strategies
Reconciliation strategies
Supporting Information
Previous Output from 2019 – as a backdrop to the topic you might want to take a look at our previous output UK Defence in the 21st Century.
Current Navy situation - you might also want to take at two links https://www.navylookout.com/snapshot-the-royal-navy-escort-fleet-in-april-2024/ and https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/trident-long-patrols/ which paint a depressing picture of the Navy situation, thought to be mirrored in the other services.
Bing Copilot
In answer to the question ‘ What does it mean to be on a war footing?’ Bing Copilot says:
Being on a war footing signifies a state of heightened readiness and preparedness for war or conflict. When a nation or organization is on a war footing, it takes several critical actions:
- Mobilization: The country or entity activates its military forces, reserves, and resources. This includes deploying troops, warships, and aircraft to strategic locations.
- Increased Vigilance: Security measures are intensified. Surveillance, intelligence gathering, and monitoring of potential threats become a top priority.
- Economic and Industrial Shifts: The economy shifts focus toward war production. Industries may prioritize manufacturing weapons, ammunition, and military equipment. Public services may be affected as resources are redirected to support the war effort.
- Communication and Coordination: There is close coordination between military, government, and civilian agencies. Emergency protocols are activated, and communication channels are streamlined.
- Public Awareness: Citizens are informed about the situation, and they may be asked to contribute to the war effort through various means (such as rationing, volunteering, or supporting troops).
- Psychological Preparedness: The population is mentally prepared for conflict. Patriotism, resilience, and a sense of duty are emphasized.
In essence, being on a war footing means that a nation or organization is fully committed to defending itself and is ready to engage in conflict if necessary.
Our note – are we either ready or able to do all of this at once?
In answer to the question ‘What needs to be done to put the UK on a war footing?’ Bing Copilot has the following to say:
To put the UK on a war footing, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has announced a comprehensive plan to bolster national defense. Here are the key points:
- Increased Defence Spending: The UK will increase its defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030. This commitment involves reaching an annual budget of £87 billion for defense1.
- Additional Funding: An extra £75 billion will be allocated to defense over the next six years. This substantial investment aims to enhance the UK’s military capabilities and readiness1.
- Focus Areas:
- Strengthening the Defense Industry: At least an additional £10 billion will be invested in munitions production. This will create jobs, boost the defense industrial base, and ensure rapid production capacity for next-generation munitions.
- Modernization of Armed Forces: A radical overhaul of defense procurement will take place. Additionally, a new Defense Innovation Agency will be established to keep the UK at the forefront of modern warfare technology. At least 5% of the defense budget will be dedicated to research and development1.
- Challenges: The UK faces an increasingly dangerous world, with an axis of autocratic states (such as Russia, Iran, and China) working together to undermine democracies. These states are investing heavily in their militaries and cyber capabilities, posing a direct threat to the UK and its allies1.
In summary, the UK is taking significant steps to fortify its national defense and respond effectively to global security challenges1.
In answer to the question ‘Can we avoid war while putting ourselves on a war footing?’ Bing copilot says:
It is indeed a thought-provoking question. The concept of being “on a war footing” implies a state of preparedness for conflict, often associated with military readiness and heightened vigilance. Let’s explore this further.
Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, recently emphasized the need to put the country’s defenses “on a war footing” by increasing defense spending1. This decision aims to address security challenges and demonstrate resolve against potential adversaries. However, the phrase itself carries broader implications beyond just military matters.
Historically, rational and intelligent individuals have sometimes underestimated the risk of war. Dean Inge, a prominent thinker between the wars, made such an error when he dismissed the possibility of a European war in the late 1930s. Despite Germany’s financial difficulties, the Second World War erupted, catching many by surprise2. Inge’s mistake highlights the danger of assuming that actions deemed ultimately ineffective will not occur.
Now, back to the question: Can we avoid war while being on a war footing? Here are some perspectives:
- Diplomacy and Deterrence: Being prepared for war doesn’t necessarily mean actively seeking conflict. A strong defense can serve as a deterrent, discouraging potential aggressors from initiating hostilities. Diplomatic efforts, dialogue, and conflict resolution should always be prioritized over military action.
- Balance and Escalation: Striking a balance is crucial. While maintaining readiness, leaders must avoid unnecessarily escalating tensions. Responsible statesmanship involves measured responses and de-escalation strategies.
- Human Nature and Rationality: As Mr. Sunak acknowledges, hyper-rational and hyper-intelligent leaders may sometimes underestimate the risk of human evil and madness. Recognizing this vulnerability is essential for effective decision-making.
- Collective Security: Collaborative efforts among nations can prevent war. NATO, for instance, relies on collective defense and mutual support. By meeting defense spending commitments, countries signal their commitment to peace and stability.
In summary, being on a war footing need not guarantee war. It can serve as a proactive stance to safeguard peace, provided it is complemented by diplomacy, restraint, and a commitment to preventing conflict2. Ultimately, the path to peace lies in wise leadership, international cooperation, and a shared commitment to avoiding war whenever possible.
Our note – number 1 above - do we and NATO currently fail on this?
Quirk of history
When World War Two broke out in 1939, says Colin Dickey in the LA Review of Books, Londoners “set about killing their pets”. Within four days, some 400,000 cats and dogs – 26% of the capital’s pets – had been slaughtered. Crematoriums were overrun with corpses; animal welfare charities ran out of chloroform. “None of this was done out of any real necessity.” Supplies weren’t yet scarce, and the government hadn’t ordered citizens to kill their pets “for the greater good of the Empire”. It was just a mass action that arose, seemingly spontaneously, in a population “terrified by the new reality of war”.
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The output of our discussions is now available at Defence - Putting ourselves on a war footing.