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Topic for May 2025 - Reform UK's impact
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The topic for May is: Reform UK’s progress and the impact on National Politics
The huge success of Reform UK in the recent local elections and the collapse in support for Conservatives and Labour is potentially a watershed moment. What does it reveal about public dissatisfaction with mainstream politics, and how might it reshape the UK’s political landscape in the longer term? How should the other major UK parties react?
Agenda
Are the local election results a typical short-term reaction against the previous Conservative Government and the initial performance of Labour? Or is something more fundamental going on?
What are the potential scenarios?
- Can we now envisage the possibility of a Reform UK Government at the next election?
- Is it more likely that we will get a hung Parliament or a coalition Government at the next election?
- Is this the end of the two-party system or will our electoral system push us back?
- Are we destined for coalition Government as the norm? Can any of these parties co-operate?
What reaction is required by each of the parties?
- Can the Conservatives reinvent themselves to be credible again?
- Can Labour turn their fortunes around in the next 4 years? If so, what do they have to resolve – growth and productivity, immigration volumes, green energy superpower, …….?
- Can the Liberal Democrats make themselves relevant and turn into a party that seeks Government?
- What of the other parties?
- Is there room for another new party with a compelling Vision and Ambition?
- Can any of the parties overcome public dissatisfaction with politicians?
- How might this all be impacted by the major changes in political, economic and technical landscape that the next Government may have to confront/take advantage of?
Ideally how should our political system change to make whoever is elected more likely to succeed and to drive outcomes?
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The output of Probably42 discussions on this topic is now available at Reform UKs progress and the impact on national politics.